John McCain shocked the political pundits (including yours truly) this week when he selected the practically unknown Governor of Alaska, Sara Palin, to be his Vice-Presidential running mate.  This is a good choice for McCain, for a number of reasons.  First Palin is satisfactory to most Republican conservatives.  On the issues, she is strongly opposed to reproductive choice and opposed to any form of gun control.  As Alaskan Governor, she has a proven cost-cutting record and she is an advocate for ethical reform in her state government.  In addition, Palin is tough, intelligent, articulate, and good looking. 

On the minus side, Palin has absolutely no experience with foreign policy or any national or international affairs.  This inexperience, however, is unlikely to matter much to voters.  Those so inclined will vote for McCain, without much concern for who he has selected for Vice President.  Nevertheless, it is clear that someone like Mitt Romney or Tom Ridge would be much more qualified than Palin to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.  So, why was she chosen over other more qualified aspirants?  The answer is the expectations game. 

Political communicators know that the media treat political candidates in terms of their expectations.  If a candidate is expected to perform well and does perform well, that candidate has met expectations and thereby is not particularly newsworthy.  However, if a candidate is expected to perform well, but actually performs poorly (below expectations) or extremely well (above expectations), that performance becomes much more newsworthy and will garner several days of discussion in the media. 

Palin is an unknown, political neophyte and thereby generates very low expectations.  Bu t, she is intelligent and articulate, so she is very likely to perform very well in debates and on the campaign trail (above expectations).  This is the major reason, she was chosen as McCain’s running mate. 

At least that is how it is supposed to work.  However, Palin is a risky choice.  If she works out as the McCain campaign expects, she might bring in a few votes that McCain otherwise might not get.  The risk is that because Palin is untried on a national level (She no doubt spoke to more people yesterday from Dayton, then she ever has in all of her political career), she might get nervous and make a serious blunder that could cost McCain any chance he has of winning the election.  Personally, I don’t think this will happen.  I think she will perform very well and will be seen as a very positive force in the McCain campaign.

Compare Palin to Biden in terms of expectations.  Biden has been in politics since 1972, has chaired important Senate committees, has traveled abroad in U.S. business, and has negotiated with foreign heads of state.  The expectations for his performance in the campaign are very high.  If he should have even one bad day on the campaign trail, his performance will be seen in the media as below expectations.  Biden will have a much more difficult task than will Sarah Palin.  This too is part of the McCain strategy.

To put is all in perspective, I think Palin selection is a risky but good choice for McCain, but it is one that shows a wee bit of desperation on McCain’s part.  Candidates tend to be unwilling to take many risks on the campaign trail.  So, the McCain campaign, must be feeling the pressure of what they see as a losing campaign effort.